I am a few months away from completing my Master of Theology (Th.M.) degree from Western Seminary in Portland, OR. I have a MA in Biblical and Theological Studies from the same institution and my undergraduate program majored in biblical studies. It has been my goal to begin doctoral work in 2013. I’ve done my best to prepare.
That said, I am concerned. At first I wanted to go to the UK until I talked to two students there who did not receive scholarships because they are from the United States, who cannot work because of the state of the British economy, and who are spending about twenty thousand U.S. dollars a year on their education. It is not far-fetched that many students who follow this path will come back to the United States seeking a job with somewhere between sixty and one hundred thousand dollars of debt.
Marc Cortez wrote a post today that should lead to fear-and-trembling for such people. In “More Bad News on the Ph.D. Job Market” he notes that the Association of Theological Schools reports the following:
1. ATS school report a constant decline in students. They expect the decline to be another 1-2% this year. It doesn’t seem like a trend that will reverse itself any time soon.
2. If enrollment declines then so does employment. “In 2008 ATS schools hired 420 new faculty. In 2009 they hired 339. By 2010 the number was down to 226. That’s an almost 50% decrease in just two years.” Furthermore, “That number, by the way, includes anyone who had previously worked at a non-ATS school, which would qualify as a “new hire” in ATS terms. So the actual number of new PhDs hired by ATS schools in 2010 is probably less than 200.”
3. Institutions will need to make decisions about hiring full-time professors. It is likely they will choose adjuncts. Let me add that this isn’t the only option though. For schools with an online learning component you do not need an adjunct if you’ve recorded the class in recent years and that same course taught once by a professor can be offered over and over again. People who are expecting to have two careers until a full time position opens may be replaced altogether.
4. There are a little over two hundred job openings right now in ATS institutions. This doesn’t account for other colleges and universities, but it is a scary statistic none-the-less. Most graduates should not expect BIOLA University, Lincoln Christian University, North Park University or other “Christian” institutions to come to their rescue.
5. One person commented noting that many schools want to hire “in the family”. This could make it difficult for students who did their work as an outsider in a particular institution. Graduates may feel the pressure to affirm things they don’t believe deep inside for the sake of finding a job with an institution willing to take them as long as they maintain the confessional stance of the school. This may not bother some, but if your the student taking the minority positions in your seminary classes be forewarned that you may not have a home after you obtain a doctorate.
On the other hand, Jim West sees a silver lining among the dark clouds: It will return academically minded people to local pulpits. In his post “Where Marc [Cortez] See Cause to Lament, I See Reason to Rejoice” he writes the following:
“…the Church (in all its flavors and manifestations) needs MORE theologians occupying pulpits. For too long gifted persons skilled in theological method have fled the church for teaching positions. This has left the church, in many places, bereft of theological guidance and left to the mercy of the ignorant, untrained, pseudo-pastors called to fill pulpits that ought to be filled by trained theologians filled with the Spirit and gifted with insight into the practical and applicable meaning of Holy Writ.”
Marc Cortez provided a helpful response in a comment:
“I agree completely that we need to do a much better job encouraging our best minds to stay in (or pursue) the pastorate. But it’s still a bad thing for those who have already entered doctoral programs (or just completed them) with their hearts set on teaching. I can see the downturn as a good thing if (and only if) it encourages people to pursue the pastorate as a primary vocation rather than a fall back strategy that they only pursue when their real dream doesn’t work out. Having a whole flood of people like that hitting our churches could be a real problem – especially if you consider that the PhD route really isn’t the best way to train people for the demands of the pastorate.
“So yes to well-trained theologians in the pastorate. But no to a flood of disillusioned and disappointed academics in the pastorate.”
West argues that we have people like Rick Warren, Joel Osteen, and Todd Bentley preaching and teaching in churches because the thoughtful minds have abandoned the pulpit for the lectern. I think this is an oversimplification since it fails to take into account that the things people like Osteen and Bentley preach is the stuff people want to hear. Likewise, we have educated pastors like Mark Driscoll (MA), John Piper (Ph.D.), and others whose education has not prevented them from saying some equally disturbing things.
Yet the basic proposal is worth considering: Is the declining job market of academia good for the church?
In part, I think another question needs to be asked: How can we continue providing pastors with higher education opportunities?
First, there would need to be a shift in the prioritization of “residency” over against remote learning.
Second, there would need to be a restructuring in cost. It is one thing to ask someone to pay ten to twenty thousand a year if they hope to become professors. I’m not sure that this is good for people entering the pastorate.
Third, we need to rethink how we allow students to do research if they won’t be on campus all the time. There needs to be more resources online, maybe seminaries and universities creating more online libraries.
I am sure there is more to consider!
What do you think? If we have less people pursuing professorships is this good news for the pastorate? If we have more pastors with Ph.D.’s do we need to rethink how we ask these students to obtain their education?
the archives near Emmaus 
The college I study at, has 3 times the number of distance Ed students, over and above the number of face to face students. It’s a sign of the global reach of cyber space.
2ndly. I’m wondering if its a healthy mentality to want to just become a academic teacher within a institution. I have met many students / lecturers / teachers who just need to get out into the society they live, roll their sleeves up and get down and dirty. Not enough teaching actually connects with the real world in which we live.
Btw, I’m not saying this is you, I’m making a general observation.
I am not sure that the average professor’s (many are part time now) and the average pastor’s are all that far apart. I think the cost of education is a concern for both.
On the other hand, I would love to see more professors (especially in MDiv programs) that both are well educated and have pastoral experience. I finished an MDiv with only two of my professors ever having worked in a church. And one of them had only pastored for 3 years and that was 40 years prior.
Sorry that should say that pastor’s and professor’s salaries are are ‘often not all that far apart’.
@Adam. While I recognise the need to be paid. Does this say something about the lack within our church in general about the idea of ‘professional Christians.’
There is so much to think about here. In a perfect world unemployed scholars would be welcomed by the church, but I have to agree with you that there is a reason why people who preach a shallow gospel succeed. They succeed because that is what people want. I would love to be as optimistic as Jim and think that the church is just waiting for deep thinkers, but experience tells me otherwise.
I do wonder, though, if the exception might be larger European cities or more sophisticated urban centers in the U.S? Might there be a place for homeless evangelical scholars to minister in places like New York City or London?
Being female may give me an advantage here. Although I intend to get a PhD in Apologetics, I have never depended on being able to teach one day. Since I’m not willing to compromise my evangelical theology for something a little more “mainline,” I have always been resigned to the fact that there are no guarantees as far as where or how I would be able to use my training. I will continue to research and write regardless of whether I’m teaching, preaching, or working at Starbucks. And I think that anyone who’s truly called to academia will probably do the same.
I think these reflections are timely. It would be a stretch to say that less people pursuing professorships will result in more pastorates (I think Marc captures it well in his response). Your question on providing pastors with higher education opportunities seems more reasonable than to risk losing professors in seminary and the other institutions. The second suggestion to ask pastors pursuing doctorates to pay equal amount should definitely be reconsidered (not you but the institution asking pastors to pay).
I have been studying online and have found it to be very instructive. Perhaps pastors considering higher education could pursue online theological training? Unless online degrees are considered obsolete within theological studies.
Craig
I agree that more academics need to live some life outside the library. There are those who are genius and I am fine with their day-to-day operations, but the rest of us need to get more fresh air!
Adam
You’re right that many professor’s salaries aren’t very large either. One of the things I appreciate about Western Seminary is they require their professors to have been involved in ministry and to remain involved to some degree (e.g. elder, board, pastor).
Leslie
If there was one city I would go to pastor (or more likely associate pastor) without regret it would be San Francisco. I think the intellectual environment of the city would provide me with motivation to continue to academic task outside of academia.
I agree with you though. If one loves the work of academia it doesn’t matter if one is working in academia.
Roger
There has been much debate by ATS regarding online degrees. I think they need to move into 2012 and allow at least a few degrees to be done online. I think they are moving that way by allowing flexible residency requirements.
This is an intriguing discussion, in that it touches more on the basic nature of the call of God to the pastorate than it does the outlook of the job market in the world of religious work. My gut reaction is, ‘God save our churches from former students who pursue the pastorate as a Plan B option!” Really, does it seem likely that the Lord would give a pastorate or a pulpit (!) to a disappointed academic who would rather be working out of a classroom? Our congregations can smell such a hireling, and they won’t recognize his voice as their shepherd.
I often tell the seminary students whom I speak to, “One of the first things you’ll need to learn about this God you intend on spending your life serving is whether He is a Lord who cares for His workers once He’s signed them on for the job. If you don’t believe He’ll care for you you’ll never be able to convince the people you serve that He’ll take care of them.” That said, I do daily pray that God would call my favorite and most respected seminary students into the local parish ministry, into the pulpit as their foremost platform of theological expression, and into the trenches!
Ken
I agree that it is framed more in the discussion of occupation than vocation. I guess there must be a balance between the mindlessness of some who blindly live life thinking “God told me I will be this” and the overthinking of those who aren’t sure what to do with their lives. Obviously, I tend to show more sympathy to those who overthink. But you are correct that this doesn’t excuse the abandonment of “calling” language.
This is a very intriguing question and one that affect me directly as I am about halfway through with my M.Div. and plan to purse my PhD. I have not decided which side of the argument I lie on. I see many good points being made. Very interesting
Well, I do hope the ATS does allow some degrees to be done online. I’m sure we all know there are benefits to being on campus, however, it’s another thing to render online education inferior altogether. Thanks for the post Brian and best luck on your ThM.
P.S This makes it even more tough to decide on whether I should pursue theological graduate school or getting a Master’s in Education.
Zack
I hope our conversation here helps you make the right decision!
Roger
I imagine education has broader applicability, though the market there isn’t great either.
I think that there is a need to explore the reasons behind one wanting to pursue a Phd. I am toying with the idea of doing a Phd in the future…first I have to finish this degree and then a masters. However, I have no interest in being a academic as such.
I have no interest in being a professor, doctor and teach full time in a college. Rather my interest and passion lays within the framework of pastoral ministry and the call to be a pastor. My soap box is that the pastoral vocation is being lost within the current leadership movement and it is in this area that I intend to study – how ever long it takes to do so.
One of the deep concerns I have within the framework of academia, is that there is very little theological reflection that actually helps those in the pews. There is little theological reflection that helps pastors to engage with the life of the church and their vocation of pastoring and how to connect the dots to God.